I noted with interest on the open thread the new Gallup poll that says that McCain is considered "unacceptable" by 40% of Republicans. I thought that was big news, for I have been fearlessly forecasting McCain as the Republican to beat. But if 40% are against you already in a hugely split field, that isn't a good sign (especially when another front runner, Giuliani, has only a 25% unfavorable rating and a whopping 73% approval rating).
Wow, I thought, This changes everything. Maybe Giuliani IS the candidate to beat.
And the good people at Gallup, like Kos, focused in on McCain's numbers as the story, making McCain the headline.
But look at the numbers, it tells a different story.
(The link is
here for the results).
So, who did worse than that pitiful 40% showing by McCain.
On the Republican side- Gingrich, Jeb Bush, Frist, Cheney, Pataki, Pataki, Rommney, Huckabee, and Brownback. Some pretty big names in there- in fact, they, along with Giuliani and Allen are pretty much the field at this point.
How about on the Democratic side?
Kerry. Clark. Dean. Feingold. Daschle. Warner. Vilsack. Some more pretty big names.
So, what does it all mean- I am going to go out on a big limb and say it all means nothing, and is evidence that polling this far out is nonsense.
Let's go back to McCain. Assuming he stays healthy, and nothing emerges from his closet, he's pretty clearly running.
Moreover, he is also pretty clearly a serious candidate, and not one who will be brushed aside early on for lack of money or attention. I will go on another limb and say that he will still be campaigning once the votes start getting counted in New Hampshire.
So, we know he will be there, with anywhere between one to three other Republicans (I don't accept the idea that by the time of the primaries that there will be more than four viable candidacies out there, in fact, I think that number is too high).
And, unless he's alone with Guiliani, that means that he's going to be with someone even more unfavorable than him, even if his numbers aren't good.
As for Guiliani- I think everyone expects his unfavorables, especially with Republicans, to go up as the election nears and the Republican voters take a harder look at him. For the purpose of this exercise, though, let's pretend they don't, that these numbers stay constant, and by the time of New Hampshire it's McCain vs Giuliani, mano e mano. Who wins?
McCain, of course. Because almost certainly the people who are registering an unfavorable opinion of him amongst the Republicans think that he's too liberal (the great myth in America, believed by Republicans and Democrats alike, to the point that he was floated as a Democratic VP nominee). Well, if it's him or Giuliani, I think it becomes pretty clear who the conservative nominee is, and McCain wins in a cakewalk.
And, if it's McCain versus one of the right wingers- well, they are unacceptable to half of the Republican party right off the bat, so that's a cake walk to.
You can do the same kind of analysis with any of the Democrats as well. The closest thing to a story here, as I see it, is that Hillary's unacceptable number is pretty low- but then, this is amongst Democrats only. I still perceive her as having a ceiling of about 52%, but that's not based on any data, just perception.
But, as the title says, who cares about data, the polls mean nothing, it is too soon by a year and a half. These polls are as meaningfull as voting for the Pro Bowl.
I go back to my original predicion- McCain for the Republicans, Feingold for the Democrats, in the most expensive campaign in human history.