What's with certain elements of the Right's objections to Meirs? I've been pondering this ever since Bush announced her.
I have come to the conclusion that, by and large, it has nothing to do with her.
I believe the reaction is fueled by a sudden realization that things aren't going all that well.
I have to admit, I had never even heard of her before Bush nominated her. He name probably appeared in articles that I'd read, but just as a name, and my eye blipped over it. Especially since, if it was an article talking about her as someone that Reid suggested, I would have discounted her as a possibility. So, I have little to base any evaluation of her on, other than what's being discussed now.
But, here's my initial take- she appears to be a largely blank slate. However, if I am a right winger, there are two factors I'd be considering- one, it really does appear that she is pro-life, and for a big part of that base, that's all SCOTUS is about. I don't know how she would rule if Roe were directly challenged, but I would expect her to be joining Roberts in undermining it at the least.
Secondly, and perhaps most importantly- Bush knows this woman inside and out, and appears to be comfortable nominating her. Some are concerned about another Souter, but the fact is Bush Sr. didn't know Souter- Bush Jr. knows Meirs. So, if I am a right winger, I'd be inclined to believe that she is likely to be on my side- not definitely, but likely, and the reality is that it is impossible to predict how these judges will look 10 years from now.
So, what's with the consternation?
To give credit where it is due, there are some conservatives who are genuinely unhappy with Meir's seeming lack of credentials, not as conservative, but as a jurist. There are no doubt some conservatives who just don't see her as qualified for SCOTUS, and who don't like the smell of a Bush crony getting the nod.
But I don't think that's the whole story.
I remember last week, on either Thursday or Friday, listening to Rush talking about how it's just too bad what the Democrats do and don't want in a nominee, they just don't matter, Bush will do what he wants, etc. Obviously, he is disturbed by the nomination.
But, I don't believe it's because of his concern over her beliefs/judicial philosophy.
I think Rush, and many other right wingers, were confident Bush was going to ram an objectionable judge down the Democrats throats, because they wanted the confrontation. They were confident in victory, and that the American people would rally to their side.
Bush, by going what appears to be a non-confrontational way, has indicated he doesn't share that confidence. He recognizes he needs to get these nominees through unscathed, because he has no political capital to call on, and he has to get his approval numbers up to a point where he isn't a huge drag in 2006.
This nomination opened some eyes that not all is well in Bush world.
The war is not going particularly well, and the American people are unhappy about it. Bush is not well liked anymore. Katrina has done some damage to the idea of Bush as a leader in a time of crisis. The indictments and investigations are beginning to pile up, as they always do when one party gets too much power for too long.
I still think that in all likelihood the Republicans control the Senate at the end of the 2006 elections, but that is far from a given. I think some of these conservatives were thinking in terms of the Republicans gaining seats, and they are suddenly awakening to realize they have serious problems. They just aren't recruiting the kind of candidates that they are going to need to pick off some Democratic seats.
The Meir's nomination was just a splash of cold water in the face, and like all people they don't like to admit that the party may be over.
Ultimately, I predict that Meir's will be a Clarence Thomas type of Justice- she's not going to be gaining a lot of instant acclaim as a legal theorist from the brilliance of her questions or writing, but she is going to very reliably fall on the same side of the aisle again and again. I know she had been a Democrat in the past, but that was a Southern Democrat. More importantly, she "found God", and became a born again Christian since then- an my experience is that those who find God tend to be more zealous than those of us who knew where he was the whole time. So, I don't think the right will be disappointed with her on the Court.
They just hated to be woken from a beautiful dream.
On the other hand, the Democrats better find someone who can beat either McCain or Guiliani in 2008, or this is just going to be a minor bump in the road for the Republicans.